Will Bitcoin Bulls Take Their Last Chance or Is a Crash Inevitable? (May 2026)
The Bitcoin price has reached the bottom trendline of its bear flag. With $BTC in a rather oversold condition, this is probably a good time for the bulls’ to come in and force a decent bounce. Failure to do so could mean a setup for a crash to much lower levels.
Bear flag trendline bounce forthcoming?
Source: TradingView
The above 4-hour chart reveals that the $BTC price has arrived at the bottom trendline of the bear flag. Now, if you are a bull you would hope/expect the price to bounce off of this trendline and at least stage a reasonable rally to take the price clear of the flag bottom.
With shorter term momentum indicators signalling to the upside, the bulls need to take advantage of this potential window of opportunity. However, it can be seen that so far a proper bounce has not materialised. Unless it does so, and soon, this could mean that the price starts setting up to fall below the bear flag trendline with a likely collapse to follow.
If the bounce does finally take off, the target would be the top of the small descending channel, and even better, a higher high that could help to turn this short term downtrend back around.
That said, what may be becoming the more likely scenario is some sideways movement which could reinforce the possible formation of a small bear flag. The playing out of this could be what sends the $BTC price down and out the bottom of a nigh-on 4-month bear flag.
Huge bear flag still dominates
Source: TradingView
To be fair, when one looks at the $BTC price in the daily time frame there are bullish factors to be found. The 100-day simple moving average (SMA) was very instrumental in stopping a breakout when the price reached the top of the first bear flag for the last time. Now this SMA is providing support – will it be as strong?
Within the large bear flag the $BTC price has traversed down inside a small descending channel. These would normally break to the upside, so wouldn’t this happen again?
Finally, for the bulls, the Stochastic RSI indicators are just about to touch bottom, perhaps resulting in a cross back to the upside and some much needed upside price momentum.
If we then look at the bear case, the huge bear flag is what dominates the picture. Just for the bulls to drag the price back to the top of the flag would mean a price increase of at least $11,500 from here. This would also bring the price up to the bottom resistance of the previous bear flag.
Finally, if we study sentiment, we realise that it is pretty awful. According to Alternative.me, the Fear and Greed Index is back in the “Extreme Fear” segment at a score of 23. If one also scrolls down to the “Crypto Fear & Greed Index Over time’ part of the site, it can be seen that the plotted values are making similar lower highs and lower lows to the 2021/2022 bear market.
Hugely pivotal point in weekly time frame
Source: TradingView
Into the weekly time frame we see the $BTC price at a hugely pivotal point. Would it be likely that the current bear flag extends out even further? The opposite bull flag during 2024 went on for 8 months – twice as long. However, that was much bigger.
If the bulls are to have their say for the next week or two, perhaps this would only take the price up to the $78,500 horizontal resistance before it came down and collapsed into the final bear market sell-off.
Towards the bottom of the chart we can see that the Stochastic RSI indicator lines are coming down, and at the foot of the chart, the RSI illustrates that the indicator line is passing through the hugely important support level of 44.80. The bulls will need to do their thing over the weekend in order for the indicator line to close above that level.
All remains finally balanced.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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