Bitcoin slips under $60K as Polymarket pegs 80% odds of 0 Fed cuts in 2026
Jessie A Ellis
Jun 26, 2026 04:24
A broad selloff pushed Bitcoin below $60,000, wiping out about $1 billion as losses spread across major tokens.
Bitcoin Slumps Below $60,000 as Polymarket Fed 2026 “0 Rate Cuts” Odds Hold Near 80%
Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in a broad crypto selloff, a risk-off move that can influence expectations for U.S. monetary policy. On Polymarket, traders continue to price a high chance that the Federal Reserve delivers zero rate cuts in 2026, with the leading outcome slightly softer than earlier levels.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices a 79.85% chance that the Federal Reserve makes 0 rate cuts (0 bps) in 2026.
- The 0-cuts contract is down from 82.10%, indicating modest hedging toward at least one cut across the ladder.
- The market resolves on 2026-12-31, and the 0-cuts implied odds are up 2.25 percentage points over 24 hours.
Bitcoin dropped below the $60,000 level as a wave of selling swept through the cryptocurrency market. The pullback extended beyond bitcoin, with Worldcoin and Pepe among the notable laggards as losses spread across major tokens. The move coincided with roughly $1 billion being wiped out during the downturn, underscoring the intensity of the risk-off shift. The decline highlighted how quickly sentiment can reverse in highly leveraged corners of digital-asset trading. Traders pointed to the broad-based nature of the slide as a sign that the selloff was not limited to a single project or catalyst.
Polymarket Data: $39.0M Matched on Fed 2026 Rate-Cut Ladder; 0 Cuts at 79.85% After a 2.25-Point 24H Move
Polymarket’s ladder for “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” shows the market concentrated around a no-cuts outcome, with $39,023,176 matched. The leading rung, 0 cuts (0 bps), implies 79.85% Yes versus 20.15% No. Farther out, 1 cut (25 bps) trades at 12.50% Yes and 87.50% No, while 2 cuts (50 bps) is priced at 3.45% Yes and 96.55% No. The deep tail remains heavily discounted, with 3 cuts (75 bps) at 0.65% Yes / 99.35% No and 4 cuts (100 bps) at 0.35% Yes / 99.65% No, signaling limited appetite for a large easing cycle by end-2026.
The contract resolves on 2026-12-31; traders will key off shifts in the leading 0-cuts (0 bps) rung versus the 1-cut (25 bps) rung as positioning changes across the ladder.
Beyond Bitcoin and the Fed: Other High-Volume Polymarket Macro Contracts Traders Are Watching
Beyond longer-dated Fed bets, activity is also clustering in nearer-term macro timing markets. In “Fed Decision in July?”, the “No change” outcome was priced at 80.5% with $20,309,142 in volume, underscoring how traders are pairing big-picture policy expectations with meeting-by-meeting positioning across Polymarket’s most liquid contracts.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.2 |
| 7d | +2.2 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$39,023,176
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 79.8% | 20.1% |
| 1 (25 bps) | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| 2 (50 bps) | 3.5% | 96.5% |
| 3 (75 bps) | 0.7% | 99.3% |
+9 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
Sources
View market on platform
Image source: Shutterstock
Credit: Source link