Ex Coinbase CTO Balaji clarifies 10% chance of sovereign default is ‘very high’

Former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan believes there is a “very high” chance that sovereign defaults will happen within months, which will cause Bitcoin’s price to skyrocket.

He was clarifying comments he made about when a potential fiat crisis will take place during his talk at Consensus 2023, which the community misunderstood.

$1M Bitcoin

He told the conference that sovereign defaults are only a matter of time as governments are printing trillions which will ultimately culminate in a financial crisis of unprecedented magnitude.

Srinivasan said that such a crisis is the reasoning behind the prediction he made in March about Bitcoin hitting $1 million after 90 days.

He said during the conference:

“Could it be that it takes 900 days or even 90 months? It’s possible, I don’t have a 100% probability on it.”

Some in the crypto community misunderstood his comment and took to social media to call Srinivasan out for reneging on his $1 million Bitcoin bet.

However, he quickly responded that he was not backtracking from his prediction and clarified that a 10% chance was “very high.”

He tweeted:

“10% is very high, and worth drawing attention to. Others also believe the probability of sovereign default is at all-time highs.”

According to Srinivasan, the potential for a fiat crisis happening within months is 10%; while the chances of it happening within years are 70%; 19% chance in decades, and 1% in centuries.

He added that markets also concur with his analysis and place the probability of a fiat crisis at an all-time high.

The entrepreneur also said that he plans to make another bet related to Bitcoin’s price and sovereign defaults soon.

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