Is the Next Bitcoin Bull Run Tied To The US Presidential Elections? Here’s What History Tells Us

On May 9, 2023

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency, has been associated with several bull runs over the years. One of the most notable uptrends occurred in 2012, and financial analyst and cryptocurrency expert Aditya Siddhartha has linked it to the United States of America (USA) Presidential Elections.

Why Does The US Presidential Elections Matter For Bitcoin?

According to Siddhartha, the 2012 Bull Run of Bitcoin was preceded by a significant drop in BTC’s price, with a decrease of 52% observed in the market. However, after the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) Bullish Crossover and all major exponential moving average (EMA) Bullish Crossovers, the market started to gain momentum, and the bull run began.

2012 MACD and EMA bullish cross. Source: Siddhartha on Twitter.

In the case of BTC’s 2012 bull market, the MACD and EMA indicators provided positive signals, leading to increased investor confidence and a surge in demand for Bitcoin. This resulted in a post-Presidential Elections bull run, with Bitcoin’s price increasing by 11800%.

On the same note, Siddhartha observed that in 2016, BTC’s price experienced a drop of 41% in the run-up to the Presidential Elections. However, after the MACD Bullish Crossover and all major EMA Bullish Crossovers, the market began to gain momentum, and the uptrend started.

Following the Presidential Elections, Bitcoin’s price experienced a post-election bull run, with the price increasing by a staggering 2800%. This surge in price was driven by increased demand from investors and a growing awareness of Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value and digital asset.

In 2020, Bitcoin saw a significant drop of 22% before the presidential elections. This drop was largely due to the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the elections and the potential impact it could have on the economy and the stock market.

However, according to Siddhartha, following the Presidential Elections, Bitcoin’s price experienced a post-election bull trend, with the price increasing by 410%.

Furthermore, Siddhartha has suggested that the price of Bitcoin could see a significant pump to $40,000 before the Pre-Presidential Elections in 2024. However, the analyst also anticipates a drop of 25%-30% in the run-up to the elections, similar to previous years.

As in previous bull runs, Siddhartha predicts that the MACD Bullish Crossover and all major EMA Bullish Crossovers will provide positive signals, leading to increased investor confidence and demand for Bitcoin. Following the Presidential Elections, Siddhartha expects a post-election Bull Run, with the price of Bitcoin potentially increasing by 450%, resulting in a price range of $180,000-$200,000.

At the time of writing, BTC’s price has been on the decline since Saturday. It has lost its previously established range between $28,500 and $29,600 and has once again failed to breach the key level of $30,000.

BTC’s Price Drops 4% In 24 Hours

At the time of writing, BTC’s price has been on the decline since Saturday, currently trading at $27,7000. It has lost its previously established range between $28,500 and $29,600 and has once again failed to breach the key level of $30,000.

This level is important as it serves as a psychological barrier for investors and traders. Currently, BTC is reporting a loss of 4% in the last 24 hours, but, will Bitcoin manage to stop the current trend and attempt another run to surpass the $30,000 level?

According to CryptoCon, Bitcoin has been following the Elliott Wave Theory quite well and even used it to determine the bottom in December 2022 at $16,500.

CryptoCon explains that, by definition, even wave 3 cannot be over as it would make it shorter than wave 1. This means that there is still room for Bitcoin to experience significant growth in the future, despite any short-term corrections.