Adorni quits in Milei graft storm as Polymarket boosts Eizenkot to 41.6%

Argentina Corruption Scandal Hits Headlines as Polymarket Lifts Gadi Eizenkot to 41.55% to Be Israel’s Next Prime Minist

Argentine President Javier Milei’s Cabinet chief and close ally Manuel Adorni resigned on Saturday amid a corruption scandal that has shaken the government. On Polymarket’s “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?” contract, traders marked up Gadi Eizenkot to 41.55%, up 2.45 points from 39.10%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the leading contender at 41.55% to be Israel’s next prime minister after the next election.
• The top-line odds moved higher as political-risk headlines hit the tape, with Eizenkot gaining 2.45 points versus the prior 39.10% reading.
• The market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31, with Eizenkot up 2.05 points over both the past 24 hours and seven days.

Argentine President Javier Milei’s Cabinet chief and close ally Manuel Adorni resigned on Saturday after a corruption scandal that has roiled the government and undercut Milei’s pledge to combat graft. Adorni, Milei’s former presidential spokesperson and a prominent defender of the administration’s austerity push, had faced mounting scrutiny over reports of lavish spending and real estate purchases since Milei took office on Dec. 10, 2023. Federal prosecutors are investigating Adorni for alleged illicit enrichment, while he has denied wrongdoing and said the money was earned legitimately, including through cryptocurrency investments. In his resignation letter posted to social media, Adorni wrote that he was acting against Milei’s wishes and described the process as “unjust, painful and exhausting” for his family. The scandal has damaged the government’s public image and complicated its efforts to communicate spending cuts, and it remains unclear who will replace Adorni.

Polymarket Data: $22.04M Matched Volume as Eizenkot Leads Netanyahu 41.55% vs 33.50% Ahead of 2026-12-31 Resolution

Polymarket shows $22,041,826 in matched volume on the multi-outcome contract for Israel’s next prime minister, with Gadi Eizenkot leading at 41.55% Yes versus 58.45% No. Benjamin Netanyahu is next at 33.50% Yes and 66.50% No, leaving the top two names accounting for roughly three-quarters of implied probability. Naftali Bennett is priced at 12.50% Yes and 87.50% No, while long shots such as Avigdor Lieberman trade at 3.75% Yes and 96.25% No. The current spread between Eizenkot and Netanyahu suggests traders see a competitive field but still concentrate positioning in the top tier rather than the tail outcomes.

Watch for further shifts in the top-two spread between Gadi Eizenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu, alongside any volume acceleration that would signal conviction ahead of the contract’s 2026-12-31 resolution date.

Beyond Israel Politics: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Traders Are Watching on Polymarket Today

Elsewhere on Polymarket, traders are also clustering around a handful of geopolitical and leadership-risk contracts with lopsided pricing and heavy flow. The platform’s “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” market implies a 99.95% “No” outcome on $65,626,158 in volume, while “Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?” is also marked at 99.95% “No” with $3,473,975 traded. In leadership markets, “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” has “Starmer – UK PM” at 90.5% on $5,870,071, and “Iran successfully targets shipping by…?” points to “August 31” at 99.95% with $450,254 in matched volume.

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