Bitcoin Halving Google Searches Soar To New ATH As Bitwise Says Markets Underestimate Its Impact On The BTC Price

On Apr 17, 2024

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Google Trends shows that Interest in the upcoming Bitcoin halving has hit an all-time high as Bitwise says investors are underestimating the long-term impact of the event on the BTC price.

Searches for the phrase “Bitcoin halving” reached a new peak with a popularity score of 100 on Google Trends on Apr. 14. That’s the highest level of interest recorded on Google throughout the crypto’s 11-year history.

Since soaring to this unprecedented level, interest has dropped by 37%, but still remains exceptionally high.

Bitcoin Halving Has Historically Been A Precursor To A BTC Rally

With the Bitcoin halving set to take place in just three days, Bitwise says that it expects the market leader’s price to underperform in the short term, but rally in the long term.

Bitwise, the world’s third-largest crypto exchange, said history shows that the month after each slash in mining rewards was a disappointing period for BTC, while the year that followed each halving saw the Bitcoin price achieve at least triple-digit percentage gains.

Historically, the Halving Has Been Good for Bitcoin’s Price Long-Term (a Look at the Data)
The change in bitcoin’s price in the year following the halving:
2012: 8,839%
2016: 285%
2020: 548%
The change in bitcoin’s price in the month following the halving:
2012: 9%
2016: -10%… pic.twitter.com/aaXSakLfko
— Bitwise (@BitwiseInvest) April 16, 2024

During the first month after the 2012 halving, the BTC price soared 9% before skyrocketing 8,839% in the year that followed.

A similar trend was also seen after the 2020 halving, when the crypto recorded a 6% price gain in the subsequent month and rallied 548% during the following year.

However, there is also the possibility that the market leader’s price will drop in the first month after the upcoming halving, as was the case during the 2016 halving with a 10% fall. But over the next year the Bitcoin price still gained 285% to reach a peak of $20k.

“The data is limited but the picture reveals an intriguing pattern,” Bitwise wrote.

Industry Executives Have A Bearish Short-Term Outlook

Other industry executives are also pessimistic towards the short-term performance of BTC after the upcoming halving. 10X Research’s head of research Markus Thielen warned that miners could dump $5 billion worth of BTC to make up for the lost revenue.

$MARA Chairman & CEO @fgthiel speaks with @BloombergTV on what Marathon is doing to prepare for the #Bitcoin halving. Watch the full interview: https://t.co/IrhE16smuM
— Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) (@MarathonDH) April 9, 2024

Meanwhile, Marathon CEO Fred Thiel said that the pre-halving rally has already been factored in. This has brought forward what was supposed to be a post-halving rally, he added.

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