Bitcoin Price Surges Amid ETF Speculation

• Bitcoin has been predicted to continue a bullish run in anticipation of the possible spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

• Analysts also believe that the journey to the new price height may not be a smooth one as sellers are prepared to reject any upward move. 

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a massive sign of bullish continuation following the recent reports of a possible approval of the spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in January next year. According to the latest market data, the asset has surged by 1% in the last 24 hours to trade at $44,090.30. 

With a bullish market sentiment, Bitcoin currently has a score of 76/100. Commenting on the spot-based ETFs, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas disclosed that there is a 90 percent chance of the US Securities and Exchange Commission approving a spot Bitcoin ETF by January 10. Seyffart explained that it could take weeks or months for an ETF to be launched after approval. 

What Scott said: 

There are TWO paths that need to be completed for an ETF launch. Even if 19b-4 is approved, S-1s still need to sign off from the division of Corp Fin. No sign that’s done yet. Possible and even likely that there could be weeks or even months between approval & launch.

Hashdex’s U.S. and Europe head of product Dramane Meite has also stated that users may access a spot Bitcoin ETF by Q2 2024.

The exact timing of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. remains unclear, but in 2023, the narrative around this product switched from a question of ‘if’ to a matter of ‘when.’ We believe U.S. investors will have access to a spot Bitcoin ETF by the second quarter of the new year and that a spot Ether ETF is likely to follow.

More Analysis of the Bitcoin Price

Regardless of the time of approval, analysts do not expect a smooth ride from the current price point to setting a new all-time high price record. According to market experts, most analysts do not factor in the multiple rejections recorded at $37,500 and $38,500 in the second half of last month. To them, this raises a big question on the strength of the digital asset from the derivatives metrics perspective. 

On November 15, Bitcoin retracted after making a 7.5 percent surge to hit $37,965. On November 20 and 21, the asset made a 5 percent decline after hitting $37,500. Analysts perceive corrections as a technical way of understanding why market makers and whales avoid leveraging long positions. In the past five days, investors using long leverage were reportedly forced to liquidate their positions. This led to about $390 million in losses. 

The latest report also shows that there has been a huge demand for long positions as the Bitcoin futures premium on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reached its highest in two years. OKX’s top traders have also reportedly resorted to long positions with a 3.8 ratio starting from December 1. These positions, however, closed as Bitcoin surged above $40,000. Currently, the ratio is said to favor shorts by 38 percent. This implies that big players have stepped away from the current rally. 

Top traders on Binance have shown different sentiments as their ratio favors long by 16 percent since the start of this month. Bitcoin options at OKX are also showing that there is an increasing demand for puts relative to calls. This shows that the whales did not participate much in the rally. 

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