Crypto Trading Lesson 1 – Understanding the Fundamentals: Probability

Trading is a multifaceted activity that necessitates a profound understanding of various concepts and strategies. While the ultimate objective of trading is to generate profits, achieving this goal entails more than just the basic principle of buying low and selling high. The core concepts of trading encompass probabilities, risk management, opportunity identification, relative mispricing, and more.

In this first lesson, we will delve into the concept of Probability, a fundamental aspect of trading, which includes the Win Rate (Win/Loss Ratio), the Odds Ratio (Risk-Reward Ratio), and the Risk of Ruin (Position Sizing, Bankruptcy Rate).

Win Rate (Win/Loss Ratio):

The win rate in trading refers to the proportion of trades that yield a profit. It’s calculated by dividing the number of winning trades by the total number of trades. 

For instance, if a trader executes 10 trades and 8 of them yield a profit, the win rate would be 80% (8 profitable trades / 10 total trades = 0.80 or 80%). 

If the potential loss and gain in a trade are equal, a higher win rate is generally more desirable. However, it’s important to note that a high win rate doesn’t necessarily equate to overall profitability. When the potential loss differs from the potential gain, another concept comes into play: the odds ratio. 

Odds Ratio (Risk-Reward Ratio):

This is the ratio of potential profit to potential loss in each trade. A favorable odds ratio, where the potential profit is high and the potential loss is low, can offset a lower win rate, as the profits from successful trades outweigh the losses from unsuccessful ones. Conversely, an unfavorable odds ratio can diminish the profits from a high win rate.

For example, let’s say you’re trading a particular cryptocurrency and you’ve identified a potential trading opportunity. You’ve decided that you’re willing to risk 100 USDT on this trade because, based on your analysis, you believe the price is going to go up. You set your stop-loss order 100 USDT below your entry point. This is the amount you’re willing to risk. On the other hand, you set your take-profit order 300 USDT above your entry point. This is your profit target. In this case, your risk-reward ratio is 1:3. You’re risking 100 USDT for the potential to make 300 USDT.

Risk of Ruin (Position Sizing, Bankruptcy Rate):

This refers to the likelihood of losing a significant portion of your trading capital to the point where trading becomes unsustainable. The risk of ruin is influenced by factors such as the size of each trade relative to your total capital, the riskiness of the trades you make, and the number of trades you execute. Effective position management and capital management can help to mitigate the risk of ruin.

For instance, let’s say you have 1,000 USDT to trade. If you risk 500 USDT (50% of your capital) on a single trade and that trade results in a loss, you would be left with only 500 USDT. If you continue to risk 50% of your capital on each trade, you could quickly exhaust your trading capital. However, if you risk a smaller amount, such as 10 USDT (1% of your capital) on each trade, you could endure a series of losses, but you may not make a significant profit even if the trade is successful.

By deeply understanding these concepts and applying them to your trading, you can enhance your chances of success and mitigate your risk of loss. Remember, trading is not a one-time event, but a long-term activity. It’s crucial to ensure that, like a casino, the odds are consistently in your favor over the long run. The rest hinges on discipline and how to identify opportunities where probability is on your side.