Falling Wedge & Election Year Fuel Bullish Momentum

On Aug 31, 2024

Amid the constant ups and downs near the $60,000 level, Bitcoin remains highly volatile near the psychological mark. While the broader market anticipations of a post-halving bull run are yet to materialize, the bearish influence is increasing.

With the history of Bitcoin predicting less uptrend chances in September, even the market analysts fail to see any big moves before the US elections. Under such conditions, will the falling wedge in Bitcoin price action give a breakout rally to hit $64,596? Let’s find out.

Bitcoin in a Wedge Eyes Breakout Run

The 4-hour price chart of Bitcoin shows a falling wedge pattern. The declining pattern occurs after the bullish failure to surpass the $64,600 resistance level. Further, the Bitcoin price has decreased by 8.20% this week, resulting in an 8.69% drop this month.

Source: Trading View

As the sudden turnaround breaks under the support trendline, Bitcoin bottoms out at the $57,681 support level. Currently, Bitcoin trades at $59,086 as it concludes the bull cycle.

The tweezer-top formation near the resistance trendline warns of another bearish cycle before a bullish trend. Further, the general idea behind a falling wedge formation supports the bullish action plans.

The daily RSI line shows a bullish divergence with the declining support trendline in motion. Further, the recent bull cycle within the falling wedge results in a bullish crossover between the MACD and signal lines. Hence, the momentum indicators support the possibility of a bullish breakout.

Based on the price action levels, the support levels below the $57,681 base are at $54,552 and $51,348. As the daily RSI line divergence teases a breakout run, the buyers can face challenges at $61,451 and $64,596.

Bitcoin Historical Data Opposes Recovery Run

Based on the monthly returns data sheet from Coinglass, September has a historic record of being a bearish month. On the basis of average returns, September holds the -4.78% record and a media of -5.58%.

Hence, the returns over the years forecast a bearish trend in Bitcoin in September against the optimistic price action analysis. However, the bullish record of October and November projects a high chance of a new all-time high in Bitcoin.

Based on the Coinglass data, the BTC price can end September at an estimated $56,022, and by October’s end, it can reach $68,803. The most bullish projection comes in November, with an average of 46.81% return over the years. As per this record, the future price of Bitcoin can achieve a new all-time high in November and hit the $101,026 mark.

Matthew Hyland, a crypto analyst, expects no significant price movements in Bitcoin before October/November. In a recent tweet, he reiterated the possibility of a bull run in late 2024 as it remains an election year and based on 2023 price action.

Will the Uptrend Continue Till 2025?

Considering that the Bitcoin price will achieve the six-digit mark in 2024, the uptrend chances are high for the next year. Further, the potential rate cuts in September are likely to have a three to four-month effect on risky assets like Bitcoin.

In addition, the US Presidential elections are around the corner. As both candidates improve their pro-crypto stances, the bull run in Bitcoin and altcoins seems imminent.