FOMC Meeting, Powell Speech Trigger BTC FUD: What’s Next?

Over the past couple of weeks, the Bitcoin market has been displaying a notable upswing, with Bitcoin prices fluctuating between $34,100 and $35,000. While some experts predict a period of sideways movement, others anticipate a potential price decline. The cryptocurrency market has seen significant developments contributing to Bitcoin’s price gains, including Grayscale’s achievements and the listing of BlackRock’s ETF on the DTCC site. Additionally, a noteworthy trend has been the migration of large Bitcoin holders, often referred to as whales, to major cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase and Binance. This shift coincided with a sudden surge in Bitcoin’s price, which exceeded the $35,000 mark.

What to Expect from the November 1st Fed Meeting?

If you think Bitcoin may not get impacted, hang on there —–one critical factor that could significantly influence Bitcoin’s price is the actions of the Federal Reserve, particularly the statements made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Keep a close watch on Key events: 

1#The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for October 31 and November 1, 2023, is expected to have a minor impact on both stock prices and the price of Bitcoin. The primary focus lies on Jerome Powell’s remarks regarding the U.S. economic outlook during his speech.

2#Currently, market participants generally expect the FOMC meeting to conclude without any changes to the federal target rate. However, there is still a degree of uncertainty regarding the potential rate hike in the subsequent meeting on December 13, 2023. In recent Fed meetings, officials have signaled their intent to maintain a vigilant stance on monetary policy. Powell emphasized that many central bank officials consider it appropriate to raise rates further if necessary, contingent on incoming data related to inflation and unemployment.

Bitcoin Price May Retrace—What Next?

Regarding Bitcoin’s price reaction, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests little anticipation of a change in the Federal target rate in the upcoming FOMC meeting. However, there is a 19.8% probability of a 0.25% rate hike from the current range of 550-575 basis points. Consequently, any indications in Powell’s speech regarding rate hike decisions for future meetings could potentially trigger a response in Bitcoin’s price, analogous to the impact on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Indices.

There have also been reports suggesting a potential pause in the Bitcoin price rally based on on-chain developments, such as profit booking by short-term Bitcoin holders. However, whether or not Bitcoin can breach the $35,000 resistance level in the following week remains a key point of interest and uncertainty in the market.