Market Update: What’s Next For Bitcoin As Fed Rate Hike Looms?

On May 2, 2023

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Bitcoin bears have taken control in the short term over the last few weeks, and a battle is underway. What should we expect in the coming days? Here is today’s Bitcoin market update.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Short-Term Focus on Key Support Level Amid Volatility

Recently, Bitcoin failed to break through the $30,000 level during a weekend pump, and as a result, the bears are now pushing toward $27,000.

$BTC pic.twitter.com/OKS791fYEi
— XO (@Trader_XO) May 1, 2023

At the moment, Bitcoin is hovering around $28,000 and has already tested key support at $27,800 yesterday evening (EST). Although the long-term trend favors Bitcoin bulls, with a price above $25,000 showing their control, the short-term focus is defending the $27,800 level to prevent a deeper correction to $25,000.

According to technical analyst Michaël van de Poppe, a new trend in the shorter timeframe is breaking through $28,400. Bitcoin could reach $30,000 within a few days if this happens. However, if Bitcoin cannot break through this level and continues to hover around $28,000, it could suggest that another drop to the lows is necessary to generate a new upward momentum. Van de Poppe is watching $27,800 as a potential long entry point or a break and flip of $28,400 for Bitcoin. Nonetheless, the analyst warns of significant volatility on the horizon.

Yann Allemann and Jan Happel, the co-founders of Glassnode, suggest in their recent analysis that Bitcoin’s monthly close in April was a significant bullish signal. For four consecutive months, BTC has closed in the green. The analysts believe that Bitcoin’s current short-term trading range is between $27,000 and $29,200.

Market Expects FOMC Meeting and Powell’s Remarks on Interest Rates and Credit Crunch

The upcoming FOMC meeting and subsequent press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may hold the key to price movements in the next few weeks. Market analysts expect a final 25 basis point hike, bringing the U.S. benchmark interest rate to pre-financial crisis levels in 2007. However, this decision is likely already priced in, and the market will be more interested in Powell’s remarks during the press conference at 2:30 pm EST, particularly his outlook for the coming months.

Investors may be hopeful for comments from Powell showing that this will be the final rate hike and that rate cuts will occur later this year, although this is considered unlikely. Furthermore, the focus will also be on Powell’s comments regarding the banking crisis and the increasing severity of the credit crunch.

Lol … volatile day coming tomorrow, and perhaps a decisive trend setter for the coming weeks. The start of a new #Bitcoin rally? https://t.co/Dd8FWOjsDa
— Jake Simmons (@realJakeSimmons) May 2, 2023

Powell will adopt a dual stance, similar to what he did at the March FOMC meeting. He may make comments such as “Inflation is not yet at our desired level,” “We are closely watching developments in the banking sector,” and “Our decisions will be data driven.” These remarks are almost certain.

On the optimistic side, Powell might show a halt in June and maintain the possibility of raising interest rates if the data supports it. As of writing, the price of Bitcoin stood at $28,100, trading below the mid-range after another rejection at the range high.

It is unlikely that BTC will experience significant price movement until the FOMC, unless there is another short or long squeeze caused by turbulence in the futures market. Apositive sign would be a resurgence in the upper range, which would bode well for the market leading up to the FOMC.

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