QCP Capital Forecasts ETH’s Dominance Over Bitcoin To Persist, Ethereum ETFs In Focus

Over the past 30 days, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, has experienced a notable surge of 17%, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC), which has recorded a surge of 2.5% over the same period. 

This comes as the initial excitement surrounding the approval of the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to have waned, with BTC witnessing a 5% drop in the past seven days. 

Interestingly, according to crypto trading firm QCP Capital, following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the focus has shifted to the potential launch of an ETH spot ETF, which could be one of the factors for Ethereum outperforming BTC.  

Ethereum Gains Ground Against BTC 

According to QCP Capital, the total volumes transacted across all 11 ETFs in the past week have reached $9.8 billion. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) alone accounted for $4.6 billion. 

Since converting from a Trust to an ETF, GBTC has experienced outflows of $1.17 billion. This is “unsurprising” for the firm, considering GBTC had been trading at a discount since 2020, offering investors an opportunity to exit at par value. 

BTC initially surged to a high of $49,100 upon ETF approval but has since seen a decline, consolidating above the $40,000 support level. Volumes have slowed since the initial launch, and market attention is focused on GBTC outflows. 

Meanwhile, ETHBTC, which traded below 0.05, has seen an upward trend to 0.06. According to QCP Capital, Ethereum is anticipated to continue to outperform Bitcoin in the medium term as the narrative shifts towards potential ETH Spot ETF approvals.

Bitcoin Forward Contract Yields Decrease

Following the launch of the BTC spot ETF, BTC forward contracts have experienced a greater decline compared to ETH forward contracts. BTC 1-month forward fell from 32% annualized to 9% (-23%), while ETH 1-month forward decreased from 28% to 12% (-16%). 

According to QCP Capital, despite declining yields, ETH forwards still appear attractive, offering 11-13% annualized returns. Additionally, selling ETH 1-month 2200 Puts presents a viable option with yields above 21% annually, and it could be a suitable level to buy in the event of a dip upon potential ETH spot ETF approvals.

Ultimately, the crypto firm suggests that the forthcoming BTC halving in mid-April and the potential approval of ETH Spot ETFs from May are anticipated to be significant events for the crypto market. 

In the interim, market movements may also be influenced by macroeconomic events. The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, as well as the February Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports, are being closely monitored for insights. 

The pace of the balance sheet runoff, discussed briefly in December 2023, is expected to provide further clarity during the January FOMC meeting. The market consensus suggests a slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT), but the timing and extent of these changes remain uncertain.

Overall, the potential launch of an Ethereum spot ETF has sparked speculation and could have a transformative impact on the Ethereum ecosystem. As the market grapples with changing dynamics, attention remains on key events, such as the BTC halving and potential ETH Spot ETF approvals.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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