Stock Money Lizards Aren’t Sure About The Ethereum Merge

On Sep 8, 2022

Stock Money Lizards talk buying their first Bitcoin, whether ETH will ever overtake BTC, and who their biggest influences are.

#Bitcoin
Perfect geometry, perfect supports 🔥 pic.twitter.com/VL7HNLjdZ4
— Stockmoney Lizards ⚡️ (@StockmoneyL) July 2, 2022

Tell us a bit about the Stock Money Lizards team. Who you are, what you do, how you work together, etc.

Chris: We are Fil and Chris, two friends and work colleagues – both scientists sharing the same fascination for the financial markets for more than 10 years now.

Fil: I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013 and had already had a bad experience with Mt.Gox back in the day (founded in 2010, it processed over 70% of all Bitcoin transactions worldwide by early 2014). Then, as now, there have been repeated scams/frauds that have severely damaged confidence in blockchain technology.

Chris: Through many detours, we have now founded the Stockmoney Lizards. We want to pursue our passion for technical and on-chain analysis in the crypto market and make it available to the public. Our work has been pretty well synchronized. Many mix us up because Fil and I are so similar in many ways.

Fil: We are based in Berlin, which is, for us, an amazing place, especially in terms of the blockchain ecosystem and crypto space. Our background is in science and it has enabled us to bring in a slightly different view on the markets. We always try to transport this element into our analysis. When it comes to TA, we both work on stuff separately most of the time but we review each other’s charts and ideas before we publish them. That’s kind of a peer review process like in some scientific journals. This has helped a lot to increase the quality of our TA.

Chris: Although we have kind of similar views on things, each one of us has their own preferences, focus, and style and the exchange of ideas is always good for the quality of the charts. I have recently developed our on-chain-data indicator OCB. Fil is then always the one who tries to classify the whole thing and make it usable for practice.

Do you always agree on your positions? Where is there the most agreement/disagreement? How do you come to a consensus?

Chris: Most of the time we do, yes. And also in terms of the big questions like bottoms, tops or putting things in the context of the macroeconomic situation. We sometimes disagree on more detailed questions, i.e. how long will this phase we’re in take etc. So, in general, we’re always on the same page, details are being discussed and – in doubt – mentioned as they are (controversial).

Fil: And we are overthinking our opinion on the market as the market moves day by day. The most agreement is on the fact that we are right now experiencing uncertain macroeconomic times and that it will have a longer-lasting effect on our economy. It is not unlikely that the FED and other Central Banks will raise interest hikes in September. However, this is already highly anticipated by the markets, so we can see a further 20% downtrend for Bitcoin, although we have already seen a significant correction. But in the end, Bitcoin is inflation-proof! At some time, we will have 21 millions bitcoins, and all the macroeconomic impacts we see today, while incredibly bad for people and companies, are irrelevant to Bitcoin.

Fil: The biggest disagreement currently maybe is on the long-term outlook of the Ethereum blockchain, right?

Chris: Yes, Fil is really into the MERGE and thinks that this will be a gamechanger, and will drive other protocols for improvements and upgrades.

Recommended: These Three Technical Analysts Are Bullish On BTC And Altcoins

Do you think Ethereum will ever overtake Bitcoin?

Fil: I think that Ethereum, if all goes well, will have a technical advantage over the Bitcoin network. And the MERGE will introduce deflation for Ether, reducing the current inflation of over 4% to below 0% due to locked ETH, fee burn and increased incentive for staking. This will inevitably be good for the price. In Bitcoin, such an event is called halvening, and we will have one for the Ethereum blockchain in some weeks. The MERGE will move the protocol from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake (PoS). Once a certain difficulty level is reached, PoS is expected to be fully implemented between September 10 and 20.

Chris: One possible effect of PoS is that the network is no longer validated by hardware, but by long-term holders. These validators have minimal costs! and therefore are not forced to sell ETH. This is what is currently happening with Bitcoin due to high investment cost and increased cost for electricity. However, PoS also brings in some dangers like the network being controlled by the wealthiest – and this is where we disagree. I personally think that the Proof of Work (PoW) is – despite its energy consumption – the only way to make the currency truly independent.

Who/what are the greatest influences on your work?

Chris: Of course, there are some technical analysts and friends whose work we follow closely. @TATrader_Alan or @el_crypto_prof are outstanding TAs and helped us a lot to improve our analysis on Twitter. Both Plan C as well as PlanB aka @100trillionUSD inspired us to work on the topic of scarcity and demand as well as on our own on-chain-data indicator.

In general, every analyst in the space – no matter if they have opposing views – has some point to make and we follow them very closely. And as we mentioned before: Our scientific background is also a big influence when it comes to finding variables in a multivariate analysis that are associated with bottoms / tops etc.

#Bitcoin
Finally, we see a clear double bottom. A bear market is a process and it looks like we are nearing the end😍.
The short-term bubble indicator shows the average daily price change over the last 90 days and compares it to the average daily change over a longer period. pic.twitter.com/JJdUSLZHbF
— Stockmoney Lizards ⚡️ (@StockmoneyL) September 8, 2022

Where do you see Bitcoin and crypto by 2024?

Fil: As we mentioned, there are several risks to Bitcoin that could have a short-term effect. In the medium and long term, we see no way around cryptocurrencies. One of the big drivers will be regulation in the next few years, which will lead to a broad mass gaining access to cryptocurrencies. We are still waiting for an ETF application to be approved by the FED. When BlackRock or other market players step up into the crypto market, that will be a gamechanger. Despite all the risks this has (such as institutions dumping their coins or governments being too invasive by e.g. taxing cryptocurrencies), we believe this is a good way for crypto to become really public.

Chris: However, there are also some short-term risks in the market. MicroStrategy/Michael Sayler may be selling due to $100 million in unpaid taxes and penalties. Mt. Gox has announced they will sell more than 100,000 BTC to make repayments to creditors. There are geopolitical stressors such as the Ukraine war or the escalating conflict with China and Taiwan. The year 2022 will most likely remain unsteady with some back and forth. In addition, crypto market movements are also strongly tied to the stock market. Especially for the S&P 500, we still see a decent downside for this year.

Fil: Nevertheless, when we look at the outlook for the next few years, we are very positive. We expect a new Bitcoin cycle peak after the Halving in early 2024. Which doesn’t mean we couldn’t see a new ATH before that date. Ethereum as the second largest cryptocurrency will benefit strongly from MERGE. There are exciting times ahead in every aspect.

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For more of Stock Money Lizards, check out their official site and Twitter.