Will Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Ride the Institutional Wave to New Peaks by 2024?

On Nov 18, 2023

Recently, after a notable rally, the cryptocurrency market experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling over 3% to below $37,000 and Ethereum (ETH) trading below $2,000. This dip isn’t just isolated to these giants; the total market capitalization saw a nearly 4% decrease, landing at $1.38 trillion. These shifts in the market bring a mix of anticipation and caution among investors, reflected in the Fear and Greed Index, currently standing at 72.

BTC, maintaining its position as the leading cryptocurrency, saw a turbulent 24 hours, reaching highs near $37,900 and plunging to lows around $35,500. Its market dominance, however, remains unshaken, standing strong at over 51%. The trajectory of ETH mirrors this volatility, with a 1.5% drop in the last day and a 6% decrease over the week. The significant declines in the trading volumes of both crypto giants, by 59% and 14% respectively, hint at a cooling in market activity. Amidst these fluctuations, the overall market sentiment remains bullish, suggesting that the current state could be a precursor to another surge.

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Interestingly, right on the heels of yesterday’s market turbulence, Fidelity is making a strategic leap into the crypto sphere. Their move to launch a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF), mirroring rival BlackRock’s efforts, comes at a pivotal moment which can very well be the catalyst for the next surge in the crypto market. With their sights also set on a spot Bitcoin ETF, Fidelity and BlackRock are leading a charge that could redefine crypto investing.

This race to launch ETFs is not a solo endeavor for Fidelity and BlackRock, as numerous financial giants are queuing up for SEC approval of their Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The finance world is eagerly waiting on the edge of their seats, especially with the SEC’s upcoming decision on ARK Invest’s Bitcoin ETF set for early January, 2024 – a potential game-changer for how similar crypto funds will be treated in the future.

Fidelity and BlackRock diving into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs could really spice up the crypto game. Imagine snagging crypto through your usual stock broker – that’s the convenience these ETFs are aiming for. They’re not just about digital currencies; they’re your ticket to a wide array of investments: from commodities to broad market indices. If these ETFs take off, we might see a surge of fresh investments in crypto, blending it seamlessly into the mainstream investment mix.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a fascinating technical landscape, trading between its first support at $29,063 and the first resistance at $37,728. The MACD level sits at 1306, suggesting a potential for upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60 is teetering on the edge of overbought territory but still offers room for growth. The simple moving averages (SMAs) for 10, 50, and 100 days are $36,742, $31,964, and $29,307, respectively, while the exponential moving averages (EMAs) for the same periods are $36,409, $32,970, and $29,130, indicating a strong support base around the $30,000 mark.

Source: TradingView

In a bullish scenario, if BTC breaks above $37,728, it could pave the way towards the second resistance at $40,796 and potentially eye the third resistance at $49,461. Such an upward trajectory could be fueled by recent developments like Hong Kong’s inclusion of Bitcoin in its investor migration program, reflecting growing institutional acceptance. The surge in Bitcoin (BTC) millionaires, as reported by BitInfoCharts, also feeds into this optimistic narrative, showing a significant increase in high-value BTC holdings.

Conversely, in a bearish case, if Bitcoin (BTC) fails to sustain its momentum and falls below $29,063, it could see a downtrend towards the second support at $23,466 and possibly the third support at $14,801. This scenario might unfold if market sentiment turns negative or if macroeconomic factors weigh heavily on the crypto space. Adding to this mix is a caution against the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) mentality from Changpeng Zhao, the CEO of Binance, who highlighted that the recent surge in BTC millionaires is likely based on on-chain data.

The role of ETFs, like the one proposed by ARK Invest, cannot be understated in this context. Their acceptance or rejection by regulatory bodies like the SEC could significantly impact investor sentiment, potentially influencing the Bitcoin (BTC) price’s trajectory in either direction.

Ethereum (ETH) currently sits at a pivotal point in the crypto market, influenced by Fidelity’s and BlackRock’s recent Ethereum ETF filings. Trading between a key support at $1,603 and resistance at $1,947, the position of ETH reflects a market in balance, with the MACD at 67.4 and RSI at 54 suggesting a cautiously optimistic sentiment. The interplay of short-term and long-term SMAs and EMAs in the $1,700-$2,000 price range indicates a nuanced market outlook.

Source: TradingView

In a bullish case, positive responses to the ETF news could propel Ethereum (ETH) towards and potentially beyond the $1,947 resistance. The next targets in an optimistic surge would be $2,078 and possibly the ambitious $2,423. The MACD in the positive zone and EMAs trending above SMAs could signal growing buyer momentum. However, over-enthusiasm could be risky, as market dynamics are susceptible to sudden shifts due to regulatory updates or changes in market sentiment.

On the flip side, a bearish outcome could see ETH falling towards the $1,603 support, with further potential declines to $1,389 and even down to $1,045 if negative pressures intensify. A downturn in MACD and RSI, coupled with short-term averages slipping below long-term ones, could signal a weakening trend.

This scenario highlights the critical role of institutional activities, like the ETF filings, in influencing market movements, underscoring the need for vigilance in such a dynamic trading environment.

As Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) navigate through the crypto market’s twists and turns, they stand at a pivotal moment shaped by both technical indicators and big financial moves. BTC teeters on the edge of potential growth as its fate is intertwined with the crypto community’s response to ETF decisions by giants like Fidelity and BlackRock. ETH, on the other hand, balances delicately between growth and caution, with its own ETF developments adding to the suspense. Both these crypto leaders are in the spotlight, their paths ahead hinged on a mix of market sentiment and regulatory shifts.

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