Will The Top Crypto Defy Historical Downtrends?

Bitcoin historically tends to have a tough time during the month of September, as quite often it delivers negative returns to traders. Despite the gloomy trend, the current forecast of BTC price is surprisingly rosy, anticipating it to rise 30% by October 1, 2024. But will this bullish forecast last, or is Bitcoin in for yet another raw deal in the weeks ahead?

BTC prices have not been able to stay above $60,000. The coin was most recently rejected at the psychological level on August 27. It then went through a quick 10% correction over the next two days. That drop helped wipe out $140 million in leveraged BTC longs. Speculators now join the chorus of many wondering: why can’t Bitcoin break through $60,000?

Mixed Bag Of Metrics

Despite this, on-chain evidence suggests otherwise. Santiment reported $4.2 billion in August 2024 crypto trading profits. Despite substantial profit-taking, whale transactions—large transfers worth $100,000 or more—have dropped to their lowest levels in almost four years, suggesting that big players are holding onto their crypto in anticipation of rising prices.

The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has also fallen to its lowest in as many months. Normally, when the supply on exchanges begins to fall, this is a sign of bullishness. Less Bitcoin on the exchanges means less people looking to sell it. Theoretically, this can drive up the price of it.

But here is the catch: Spot Bitcoin ETFs that were supposedly going to herald unprecedented institutional inflows have seen underwhelming outflows. Some analysts make sure to note that ETF outflows are always a lagging indicator, as bearish mood after major news events usually reflects later on. Yet, such outflows only add more ambiguity to that, and traders simply remain in doubt whether this promise of institutional demand ever comes or just fizzles out.

ETF Outflows And Traditional Markets

Further, contributing to Bitcoin’s current quagmire is traditional finance. Concerns from conventional finance players caused the crypto asset’s $61,000 rejection. High dependence on tech firms, especially AI-driven ones, worries them. This has increased pessimism, matching market expectations for a 100% interest rate decrease in September.

Recent fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin have moved in lockstep with the S&P 500 index, underlining the increasingly correlated nature of cryptocurrency and traditional markets. That may mean the future of Bitcoin is pegged to general economic fortunes – for better or worse.

Bitcoin: Time To Buy?

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $57,515, down 1.5% and 10.3% in the 24-hour and weekly timeframe, data from Coingecko shows.

Although on-chain statistics show promise, the prevailing mood is far from optimistic. By October, CoinCodex’s most recent Bitcoin price estimate predicts the price 40%. That is rather significant. Their technical indicators, however, show a bearish attitude, and the Fear & Greed Index comes out as Fearful, at 26.

Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView